From Ken Rudin's "Political Junkie" column, NPR.org (also waiting for an NPR radio report to post online):
Democrats have now won two special House elections formerly held by Republicans. On March 8, they took the Illinois seat that had been occupied by ex-Speaker Dennis Hastert, and on Saturday, they won a seat in Louisiana held for more than two decades by Richard Baker (and by the GOP since 1975). Republicans have argued, with some validity, that their candidates in both races were seriously flawed. Jim Oberweis, the GOP candidate hoping to win in Illinois, had a rocky relationship with his fellow Republicans and had alienated many in the party with earlier runs for governor and the U.S. Senate. In Louisiana, the GOP candidate was Woody Jenkins, a controversial figure who nearly won a Senate race in 1996 but who concealed a campaign payment to ex-Klansman David Duke for his mailing lists. Jenkins, too, was not the Republicans' favorite candidate.
But the GOP is staring at another potential loss May 13 in Mississippi's 1st Congressional District, vacant since Roger Wicker (R) was appointed to the Senate to succeed Trent Lott. The candidates there are Travis Childers (D), a local court official, and Greg Davis (R), the mayor of Southaven. At first glance, Davis is not a "flawed" candidate, so the Republicans don't have that to fall back on. But some see the strategy being used in the district as being flawed.
One tactic the GOP employed in the Louisiana special — and that is being repeated in Mississippi — is attempting to tie the Democratic candidate to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi or Barack Obama or both. Neither, the reasoning went, is especially popular in these two conservative bastions. But the Democratic candidates — winner Don Cazayoux (pronounced KAZH-oo) in Louisiana and hopeful Childers in Mississippi — are pro-life/pro-gun conservatives who aren't the type to hang around with "liberal elites" such as Pelosi or Obama. (Cazayoux benefited from a sizable black turnout in Baton Rouge for his 49-46 percent victory.)
For their part, Republicans insist the strategy was/is a success, saying it helped keep the race in Louisiana closer than it would have been. Meanwhile, Childers came within 400 votes of winning the Mississippi seat outright on April 22, and Republicans are bracing themselves for what might happen next week. The GOP has held the seat since veteran Democrat Jamie Whitten retired in 1994.
GOP Nervous About Trends in Special House Races : NPR
